Why the Electric Vehicle Bubble Will Burst: A Costly Fantasy

The rise of electric vehicles (EVs) has been hailed as the future of transportation, promising a cleaner and more sustainable alternative to gasoline-powered cars. However, the reality is far from the utopian vision that proponents of EVs would have you believe. Despite efforts to promote EVs, there are several significant challenges that make their widespread adoption unlikely.

One of the major obstacles preventing the mass acceptance of EVs is the exorbitant cost. While the prices of electric vehicles have gradually come down in recent years, they still remain significantly higher than their gasoline-powered counterparts. The additional cost, roughly £10,000 per vehicle, acts as a substantial barrier for most consumers. People are hesitant to pay the premium price if they do not see a considerable improvement in performance. Furthermore, issues like range anxiety and the lack of convenient recharging infrastructure continue to impede the widespread use of EVs.

Another concern is the reliance on China for the materials needed to manufacture EV batteries. As the demand for electric vehicles increases, China stands to benefit greatly, both economically and politically. This dependence on a single nation for crucial resources raises concerns about supply shortages and potential price hikes in the future.

The transition to an all-electric transport and heating system also comes with significant energy supply challenges. The demand for electricity will surge by 170 percent, necessitating a massive expansion of the electricity supply industry. This means an urgent need for 40,000 professional engineers over the next three decades. However, there is a lack of comprehensive planning and feasibility studies to demonstrate how this transition can be implemented effectively.

Furthermore, the fundamental limitations of battery technology hamper the potential of EVs. Despite decades of research and development, lithium-ion batteries, the current standard for EVs, have only achieved a fraction of the energy density of petrol. Experts predict that any significant improvements in battery technology will be slow and incremental over the next 50 years.

Automobile manufacturers are cautiously reevaluating their commitment to EVs as unsold vehicles accumulate worldwide. While they possess the capability to produce battery-powered cars, the lack of market demand and significant associated costs deter their full embrace of EVs. Government mandates provide the primary impetus for industry involvement. However, history has shown that government policies can be fickle, leaving automakers vulnerable to sudden shifts in priorities.

In conclusion, the vision of a future dominated by electric vehicles appears more and more like a costly fantasy. The challenges of affordability, limited resources, lack of effective planning, and technological shortcomings pose significant barriers to their widespread adoption. As the potential bubble surrounding the green/EV movement continues to build, it remains to be seen how long it will sustain before it eventually crashes and burns, leaving behind trillions of dollars in wasted investments and geopolitical consequences.