A new analysis by Rethink Energy predicts that perovskite solar will become a significant player in global photovoltaic (PV) manufacturing by the end of this decade. By 2040, perovskite solar is expected to account for 85% of the industry’s output, with an annual production capacity of close to 1TW.
Perovskite solar cells have attracted considerable attention in the solar research and development field due to their potential for cost reduction through solution-based and low-temperature fabrication. The efficiency rate of perovskite solar cells has skyrocketed from below 4% to over 25% in just a decade.
However, concerns about the stability and durability of perovskite solar cells have hindered their commercialization. Rethink Energy suggests that it will still take another two to three years to overcome these challenges and make perovskites a viable force in solar energy.
The forecast indicates that progress will accelerate in the second half of this decade. By 2026, global perovskite manufacturing output is expected to reach 2GW, followed by rapid escalation to 10GW in 2027 and 100GW by 2030. Ultimately, perovskite solar is projected to reach around 1TW of production annually by 2040.
Rethink Energy predicts that over 90% of solar manufacturing by 2040 will involve perovskite solar technology. Four key companies, including Microquanta, GCL Perovskite, Utmolight, and Oxford PV, have already commissioned 100MW pilot lines. Additionally, the report identifies 42 new and upcoming perovskite manufacturers.
China’s dominance in the perovskite solar sector is evident, as with much of the renewable energy industry. While some of the companies’ short and medium-term projections for perovskite manufacturing output may take longer than expected, the technology is continuously improving solar generation. Higher efficiency products are being produced, and their longevity is increasing with verification according to international standards.
Furthermore, the commercialization of perovskite solar PV is demonstrated by the involvement of mainstream solar manufacturers. Companies like First Solar, GCL System Integration, LONGi, and Q Cells have either acquired perovskite subsidiaries or made significant investments in perovskite production lines.
In conclusion, perovskite solar is on track to revolutionize the PV manufacturing industry. With its continuously improving efficiency, increased stability, and growing adoption by major solar manufacturers, perovskite technology is poised to become a significant contributor to global renewable energy production.
Source: Rethink Energy, UNSW, Renews Economy, The Driven